从居民资产负债表看中国财富标志的演变及其影响

The Evolution and its Economic Impact of Wealth Identification in China from the Perspective of Household Sector's Balance Sheets

"财富标志"是广义虚拟经济的重要概念之一。财富标志体现为居民的实体资产和金融资产,居民资产负债表中的资产结构变化就体现了财富标志的演变。本研究编制了1994-2009年中国居民部门金融资产负债表,并与加拿大、日本、英国和澳大利亚等四国的资产负债表进行对比,从资产负债表的角度研究了中国财富标志的演变。又采用热最优路径法研究了财富标志演变对物价水平和经济增长的影响。最后,提出了应对中国财富标志演变的政策建议。研究结果表明:住房、证券和存款充当了中国居民近20年来的主要财富标志;财富标志的类型在不同时期不同地区基本都一样,但是,各种类型的财富标志所占的比例很不一样,演变特点是物质性财富标志占比受土地的影响较大,非物质性财富标志比较分散,是财富标志泛化与转移的主力军;土地住房占比增长率的变化显著影响了CPI和GDP增长率的变化。

Wealth identification is one of the important concepts in generalized virtual economy. It reflects as household＇s financial assets and non-financial attest, so the evolution of it is analyzed according to the change of asset structures of household＇s balance sheets. This paper prepares household sector＇s balance sheets in 1994-2009 and studies the evolution of wealth identification in China by comparing it to ones in Canada, Japan, UK and Australia. The paper analyzes economic impact of this evolution by the thermal optimal path method. The research gives some suggestion to deal with the changing wealth identification. The findings is as follows. Housing, securities and deposits were top three of Chinese household＇s wealth identification over the past 20 years. The type of wealth identification is basically the same in the different time and space, but the ratios of these are very different. Land is the most important one in the material wealth identification. However, the virtual one is widely dispersed, which is the major areas of generalization and shift of wealth identification. The change of growth rate of ratio of land and housing to asset significantly affects the change of CPI and GDP growth rate.