基于气温的城市燃气小时负荷预测

Forecast of City Gas' Hourly Load Based on Air Temperature

燃气小时负荷随着气温的变化而波动,考虑气温变化的影响,利用Elman神经网络构建燃气小时负荷预测模型。通过对杭州市燃气小时负荷进行预测,结果表明预测和实际值有较好的一致性,所建立的模型收敛速度快,精度高,具有较好的工程应用前景。

City gas load is affected by the weather, and taking the effect of temperature into account, the paper establishes the Elman network forecast model for hourly gas load, which has been used in Hangzhou. The results show that there is a good consistency between the forecast result and the actual value, and the model is feasible, efficient, and has a good engineering application prospect.