摘要
在建立农村劳动力就业模组基础上,采用劳动生产率模型对农业就业人员进行分析,并据此估算了2001～2010年间我国农村剩余劳动力存量,实证结果表明：2010年农村剩余劳动力不足5000万.同时,在假设经济增速略微放缓和额外提高劳动生产率情景下对2011～2020年间剩余劳动力进行了预测分析,并对农村剩余劳动力有效转移提供了政策建议.
This paper, based on the establishment of rural labor employment module, uses the labor productivity model to analyze agricultural employment personnel and accordingly estimate the stock of China＇ s rural surplus labor force between 2001 and 2010. The result shows that the size of rural surplus labor force in 2010 is less than 50 million. Moreover, assuming the speed of economic growth slowing down and the labor productivity improving, it predicted and analyzed the surplus labor force between 2011 and 2020, and provided policy advice on the effective transfer of rural surplus labor force.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期6-10,22,共6页
Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71173149)
四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费研究专项项目(skqy201110)
成都市哲学社会科学规划项目(ZST11-06)
关键词
农村剩余劳动力
生产率
存量
预测
rural surplus labor force
productivity
stock
prediction
