我国人口抚养比变化对居民储蓄率的影响——基于时间序列的实证研究

Empirical Analysis about Effects of Dependency Ratio of Population on Household Saving Rate——Based on Time Sequence

基于VAR模型,选用中国1990—2009年的人口抚养比和居民储蓄率统计数据,运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法研究少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民储蓄率三者之间的关系。实证结果表明:少儿抚养比和老年抚养比均是居民储蓄率的格兰杰原因;通过脉冲相应分析和方差分解分析发现:从长期来看,少儿抚养比的变化对居民储蓄率的影响逐渐微弱,而老年抚养比的变化对居民储蓄率的影响则逐渐加强。

Based on VAR Model, this paper selected the dependency ratio of population and house- hold savings rate data from China over the period from 1990 to 2009 and researched the connections between dependency ratios of children, eider and household saving rate by using methods of Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The conclusion indicates that the effect of the change of dependency ratio of children on the household savings rate become weak gradually and the elderly dependency ratio affecting on the household saving rate strengthen gradually.