基于Arc GIS的江苏省猪粮比价风险等级评估

Risk assessment of pork-grain price ratio in Jiangsu province based on Arc GIS

为建立猪粮比价评估系统,以江苏省宿迁市为例,分析猪粮比价与生猪价格、玉米价格和豆粕价格相关性,通过建立GM(1,1)模型,分别对生猪价格、玉米价格和豆粕价格进行趋势预测,采用灰色关联度建立猪粮比价与其影响因素的关系模型,利用地理信息系统技术(Arc GIS软件)进行猪粮比价风险等级评估。结果显示,豆粕价格可作为猪粮比价的计算因素,GM(1,1)模型可实现各因素价格预测,灰色关联法可以较为准确预测猪粮比价,同时利用地理信息系统技术能够实现猪粮比价数据管理和风险等级评估的可视化。

In order to establish a system for pork-grain price ratio risk assessment, the correlations between the pork- grain price ratio and the live pork price, the corn price and the soybean meal price in Suqian,Jiangsu province, were ana- lyzed. Through the development of GM （ 1, 1 ） model, the trends of the pork price, the corn price and the soybean meal price were predicted. Gray correlation degree was adopted to establish the relation models of pork-grain price ratio and its influencing factors. The risk assessment of pork-grain price ratio was performed using geographic information system（GIS） technology（ Arc GIS software）. The results showed that soybean meal price served as a calculation factor of pork-grain price ratio. The GM （1, 1 ） model could achieve price projections. The grey correlation method could accurately predict the pork-grain price ratio. At the same time, the visualization of data management and risk assessment of pork-grain price ratio could be realized by the geographic information system technology.