生产要素使用效率与中国宏观经济波动

Efficiency of Factor Utilization and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations

生产要素使用效率不仅在微观层面上对企业成长有重要意义,而且在宏观层面上也具有特殊的理论意义,中国政府正在提倡的"转方式"以及建立"资源节约型社会"便与此密切相关。本文将要素使用效率以内生的方式引入动态一般均衡模型,利用贝叶斯极大似然方法估计了模型的结构参数,基于贝叶斯估计的后验让步比率显示,实际经济更倾向于选择具有要素使用效率动态的模型,说明它更好地解释了中国数据。进一步的实证研究也表明要素使用效率机制对于正确理解中国宏观经济动态是不可或缺的。

The efficiency of factor utilization （EFU） not only has important significance for the enterprise growth from microeconomic perspective, hut also has special theoretical significance from maeroeconomic perspective. This paper introduces the efficiency of factor utilization into a DSGE model. The EFU not only enters the aggregate production function, but also can be endogenously chosen by rational agents. We estimated the structural parameters with Bayesian MLE method. The marginal data density shows that the real economy prefers to choose the model embedded the efficiency of factor utilization, which reflects relatively better explanation power of china data. Further research shows as following： （ 1 ） EFU mechanism increases the magnitude and persistence of output effect of neutral technology shocks; （2） The adjustment of labor utilization efficiency is more difficult than that of capital utilization, but labor utilization is much less volatile than capital utilization; （3） Without EFU, the volatility of TFP shocks will be highly over-stated, and TFP itself will be incorrectly over-stated by forty-five percent; （4） According to the historical simulations, we identify that the endogenous factors of efficiency has strong explanatory power on output wave, especially contributed to output in ＂the eleventh five-year plan＂ period. These results show that EFU mechanism is a non-negligible factor to correctly understand china economy dynamics.