老龄化背景下我国城镇居民储蓄行为研究

China's Urban Household Saving Behavior in the Population Aging Period

近年来,我国城镇居民储蓄率一直居高不下,国内外学者已从诸多角度深入研究了影响中国高储蓄率的因素,但大多局限在相关经济研究层面,对体制的研究相对匮乏。本文基于缓冲储备储蓄理论,对养老金"多轨制"进行量化,利用连续追踪的微观数据,建立平衡面板模型做实证分析。结果表明:①社会老龄化程度的加深会提高居民储蓄率;②我国尚待完善的养老保险制度在一定程度上可以解释居民的高储蓄率现象,主要体现在两个方面:我国养老金"多轨制"的存在,使得机关事业单位人员与企业人员之间养老金福利待遇相差甚大;我国养老金覆盖率低,很多居民在退休后基本无生活保障。

China＇s urban household savings rate has been high in recent years. Foreign and domestic scholars are analyzing the factors that affect China high saving rate from many angles, but most of them are limited to the economic perspective, no study on institutional structure perspective. This paper quantifies the pension multi-track and uses micro- data of continuous tracking to construct balanced panel model for empirical analysis, based on the buffer-stock save theory. The result shows that： （1） Deeping of social aging will increase the household saving rate; （2） imperfect pension insurance system of China, partly, can explain the high household saving rate： （~）The exits of the pension multi-track lead to large difference of pension benefits between administrative business units and enterprises; ~）Low coverage of pension insurance make many households have no living safeguard.