基于VAR模型的入境旅游与国内旅游关系的定量研究——以丽江为例

A quantitative analysis of inbound tourism and domestic tourism based on VAR model——A case study of Lijiang

以丽江为例，运用向量自回归模型（VAR模型）和脉冲响应函数对2000—2010年入境旅游游客量与国内旅游游客量的时间序列数据进行计量分析。结果表明：丽江市入境旅游游客量与国内旅游游客量之间存在协整关系，即两者之间存在长期均衡关系。同时，两者之间的相互影响程度和影响方向截然不同。

Vector regression model （VAR model） and the impulse response function are applied to analyze time series data of Lijiang＇ inbound tourism visits and domestic tourism visits （2000 -2010）. The results show that there is a co -integration rela- tionship between domestic tourism tourist visits and inbound tourism visits, that is, there is a long - term equilibrium relationship in between. Based on the conclusion, some corresponding suggestions are advanced.