基于Stackelberg博弈的天然气定价机制研究

Natural gas pricing mechanism based on Stackelberg game model

为探求中国天然气行业未来市场竞争条件下由市场定价的可行策略,从中国天然气定价机制的现状出发,借鉴国外较成熟天然气市场定价经验,剖析未来市场条件下中国天然气定价机制的不同可行策略,并对不同策略的优劣进行对比分析。以博弈论的基本原理和方法为工具,构建天然气定价机制的理论模型,模型涵盖未来天然气行业上中下游定价机制的改革思路,并深入探讨天然气定价的内在机制。提出的天然气定价的定量模型一定程度上克服了原有天然气定价研究以定性分析为主、缺乏模型支持的片面性。结果表明,实行第三方准入制后,天然气生产商的定价和边际毛利均下降,而天然气配气商的定价下降,边际毛利升高。说明实行第三方准入制有利于引入竞争,同时使下游市场议价能力提高,用户利益得以保障。

To explore a feasible pricing strategy in future competitive market of natural gas industry,reference from mature international natural gas market was drawn,and various pricing strategies and their advantages and disadvantages were analyzed based on the existing natural gas pricing mechanisms.By applying game theory,a pricing model of natural gas was established to illustrate the evolving pattern of natural gas upstream,medium-stream and downstream,and to analyze the inner mechanism of natural gas pricing.This study contributes to existing pricing theories by presenting a quantitative pricing model to fill in the research gap that current researches are mostly qualitative based.The results show that with third party access system,both the output price and the marginal profit of natural gas manufactures decrease.On the other hand,even though the output price of distributors decreases,their marginal profit increases.This presents evidence that third party access system is beneficial for competition and will enhance the bargaining power of downstream and increase users＇ consumer surplus.