天津市碳排放与能源强度影响因素研究

Study on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission and Energy Intensity in Tianjin

基于《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》核算了天津市2000—2009年三大产业所使用15种主要能源产生的碳排放量,并利用LMDI分解方法将天津市三大产业的碳排放分解为碳排放因子、能源结构、能源强度、经济结构、经济发展五个因素。结果表明:2001—2009年间天津市的经济发展和碳排放因子促进了对天津市碳排放的增加;能源强度、能源结构和经济结构因素对碳排放增加起抑制作用,其中,能源强度是对碳排放抑制作用最大的因素。为进一步明确能源强度的变化特征,利用完全因素分解法将能源强度分解为结构份额和效率份额。结果表明:1999—2009年天津市能源强度下降主要得益于效率因素的变动,即能源使用效率的提高;第三产业能源使用效率提高对能源强度的下降起到的作用最大。

The carbon emission of three industries with 15 main energy from 2000--2009 in Tianjin was calculated based on 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, which was decomposed into carbon emission factor, energy structure, energy intensity, economic structure, and economic development with LMDI. It showed that in 2001--2009, economic development and carbon emission factor promoted carbon emission; energy intensity, energy structure and economic structure inhibited carbon emission increase, among which energy intensity was the most important factor. To confirm the characteristic of energy intensity change, this paper decomposed the energy intensity into structure portion and efficiency portion. It showed that the efficiency improvement of Tianjin contributed to energy intensity decrease in 1999--2009, and the increase of the energy service efficiency of the third industry played the most important role.