全球气候变化下中国林产品的减排贡献:基于木质林产品固碳功能核算

Global Climate Change and China's Contribution to Carbon Reduction:Based on Carbon Storage Accounting of Chinese Harvested Wood Products

森林及其产品的固碳功能对减缓气候变化具有重要作用。木质林产品（下简称HWP）的碳储存是全球气候变化的重要议题，研究HWP碳储量并对其进行功能管理，对我国政府提高温室气体减排潜力并参与气候谈判、提交国家温室气体排放清单具有重要的现实意义。论文依据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）建议的HWP碳量核算模型，研究了1961—2011年中国HWP的固碳功能，继而比较分析了中国HWP碳储量的减排潜力。研究表明：从总量看，储量变化法、大气流动法基础上核算的中国2011 年度碳储量值分别为6.76×10^8 t 碳和2.58×10^8 t 碳；从年增长量看，储量变化法、大气流动法基础核算的中国HWP碳储量增长平均值为1 063×10^4 t 碳和262×10^4 t 碳。基于中国是世界HWP进口大国，储量变化法的选择应用将对我国有利。HWP碳储量减排贡献的研究发现：中国HWP碳储量为森林立木总量的4.75%~8.42%，平均约为6%；对比中国能源消费的年碳排放量值，中国HWP的年碳储量可以减排约1.6%，中国HWP具有显著的碳汇功能及进一步提升的减排潜力。

As forests and the harvested wood products （HWP） have carbon sequestration function in mitigating the global climate change, the carbon storage of HWP has become an important issue in global climate negotiations. To study the carbon storage function and the management strategy of HWP has important practical significance for China to present the national greenhouse gas emissions list and improve the potential of greenhouse gas emission reduction. This paper first decomposed the principle of carbon storage and emission reduction of HWP for climate change mitigation. The hysteresis effect of carbon emissions decides that the HWP are carbon pools. The HWP have big effects in reducing carbon emissions, especially in energy and building department. The paper then made a comparison of four carbon accounting models of HWP provided by the IPCC Guidelines, and Stock-change approach and Atmospheric-flow approach were used to estimate the annually carbon storage change of HWP of China during the period from 1961 to 2011, and finally evaluate the carbon reduction potential of China＇s HWP through comparative analysis. The carbon conversion variable factors needed in the accounting process referred to ＂2006 IPCC National Greenhouse Gas List Guide＂, and China＇s wood products production and international trade data got from the FAO database. From the angle of total amount, the carbon storage of HWP was 676 million t and 258 million t in 2011 using the Stock-change approach and Atmospheric-flow approach. From the angle of annually growth, the result of Stock-change approach and Atmospheric-flow approach was 10.63 million t and 2.62 million t during the period from 1961 to 2011. As China is a large wood products importing country, the result shows that the Stock-change approach is more beneficial to our country than the Atmospheric-flow approach. Contrast to China＇s forests carbon storage during the same period （1973-2003）, the proportion of carbon storage in the HWP was 4.75%-8.42%, at an average of almost 6%; Contrast to the data of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of energy provided by U.S. Energy Information Administration, the carbon storage in the HWP could reduce about 1.6% of total emissions. China＇s HWP have significant function of carbon storage and further potential in carbon emissions reduction.