Biotic Ligand Model的简化模型及预测性能评价

Simplification of Biotic Ligand Model and Evaluation of Predicted Results

通过检索4物种(Fathead minnow、D.magna、D.pulex、Rainbow trout)在地表水中实测的铜半致死浓度(Observed_LC50),及Biotic Ligand Model(BLM)预测其半致死浓度(Predicted_LC50),得到4物种的预测精度依次为0.075、0.52、0.96、0.29,模型对Fathead minnow与Rainbow trout的预测性能较差.在此基础上,分析显示预测误差值与LA50呈指数关系,表明LA50值并非常数值.通过对BLM的LA50的校正,Fathead minnow与Rainbow trout的预测精度升为0.59、0.42.通过分析LA50与硬度的关系,发现BLM在软水环境中预测效果较差.另外,随机均匀生成500组水质参数组,通过BLM预测,筛选出4项敏感参数为DOC、pH、HCO-3浓度及温度,并建立相应物种的LC50与其的多元线性关系,大大简化了生物配位模型.

The prediction accuracy of LC50 on four species （ Fathead minnow, D. magna, D. pulex, Rainbow trout） was 0. 075, 0. 52, 0. 96 and 0. 29 respectively as determined by their onserved values of LC50 in surface water. Predicted results indicated that the correlation between forecast error and LA50 was exponential. The accuracy of Fathead minnow and Rainbow trout became 0. 59 and 0. 42 after adjusting LA50. The correlation between hardness and LAs0 showed that the prediction effectiveness of BLM was poor in soft water. In addition, four important parameters （ DOC, pH values, the concentration of HCO3- , temperature） were selected to build the multiple linear relationship with LC50 by applying 500 groups of random uniform water quality parameter in BLM. Biotic ligand model was effectively simolified.