中国经济周期特征与太阳黑子均衡

Sunspot Equilibria and Real Business Cycle in China

构建考虑信念偏差所代表的不确定性因素和政府支出冲击的太阳黑子RBC模型来解释宏观经济的周期波动,利用中国改革开放以来的经济数据,对该模型进行实证检验。研究发现,该模型能够解释80%以上的中国经济波动特征,可以合理预测各宏观经济变量与产出之间的协动关系,合理预测各变量与劳动生产率之间的相关关系。本文模型对中国经济的解释力远远高于标准RBC模型,说明这一模型比较适合解释中国经济波动。信念冲击与政府支出冲击均是中国宏观经济波动的重要冲击来源,分别可以解释约30%和60%的经济波动,表明二者均是中国经济波动不可忽略的重要影响因素。

This article establishes a RBC model of sunspot equilibrium with sunspot shocks and government consumption shocks to explain the business cycle in one country, and use the data in China after the reform and opening-up to test this model empirically. It finds that this model can explain about 80% of the actual volatility, can reasonably predict the correlations of GDP with macroeconomic varia- bles and can reasonably predict the correlations of lobar productivity with macro- economic variables. This model explains the business cycle in China better than the classical RBC model, which implies that the former should be used to discuss the business cycle in China. In addition, it also finds that sunspot shocks and shocks of government spending are two important shocking source of business cycle in China, and can explain 30 percent and 60 percent of macroeconomic fluctuations, it implies these factors will not be overviewed to analyze business cycle in China.