联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球

Predicting whether an Interplanetary Shock Will Encounter the Earth by Using Solar and Interplanetary Parameters

选取第23太阳活动周（1997--2006年）期间542例由太阳爆发活动驱动的行星际激波事件，分析确定了太阳源头和行星际空间中影响行星际激波能否到达地球轨道的关键物理参数；在此基础上，建立了预测行星际激波能否到达地球的新预报模型（EdEaSPM）．回溯预报结果表明，EdEaSPM模型的预报成功率约为66％，略高于国际一流预报模型的预报成功率；EdEaSPM模型的虚报率未超过50％，改善了当前国际主流模型虚报率较大的情况；对于偏度指标，虽然当前所有模型的偏度值均大于1，但EdEaSPM模型的偏度值最接近于1且明显小于其他模型的偏度值；EdEaSPM模型的其他评价指标也都高于国际主流模型的相应指标．此外，选取2012年期间的激波事件对EdEaSPM模型进行了预报检验，预测结果与实际情况吻合．EdEaSPM模型不仅能够提前约1—3天进行预报，而且预报效果与国际一流模型具有可比性，尤其是在提高预报成功率及降低虚报率方面具有一定优势．

Predicting whether an Interplanetary （IP） shock driven by solar eruptions will encounter the Earth is the prerequisite and foundation to predict its arrival time at the Earth and the geoeffec- tiveness. Using 542 IP shock events associated with solar eruptions during 1997--2006, the influence of intensity, location, initial shock speed, duration of solar eruptions and Solar Energetic Particles （SEP） flux upon the propagation of IP shocks is investigated statistically, and then key physical parameters mentioned above that obviously influence the IP shock＇s arrival at the Earth are chosen. Finally, an Earth-directed and Earth-away Shock Prediction Model （EdEaSPM） based on not only solar parameters but also SEP parameters is built. The results of historical prediction show that the success rate of EdEaSPM model is about 66%, which is significantly higher than that of the other prevailing models, STOA, ISPM and HAFv2. The False Alarm Ratio （FAR） of EdEaSPM is less than 50% and the situation that FAR is too high is improved. For the ratio of number of events with shock forecast to that with shock detection, bias, although the value of Bias of all of the models is greater than 1, the Bias of EdEaSPM is the smallest and most close to 1. For the other forecast skill scores, TSS, HSS and GSS, the EdEaSPM performs better than HAFv2 model. In addition, prediction test of 6 IP shock events between Jan. and Oct. 2012 shows that the forecast results are consistent with observations. The EdEaSPM model can forecast whether an IP shock will encounter the Earth about 1 to 3 days in advance, and its accuracy is comparable to that of the other prevailing models. In particular, the success rate and false alarm ratio are improved significantly.