国际煤价与中国GDP、能源消费的关联关系-兼论我国经济增长的资源约束阶段性假说

Relationship of International Coal Prices, China's GDP and Energy Consumption——Concurrently Discuss the Resource Constraint Hypothesis of China's Economic Growth

本文利用2000-2010年我国地区面板数据,从结构转变、长期均衡和短期影响,研究了国际煤价、中国GDP和能源消费的关联关系。我们提出以2005年为界线,将中国经济分为"资源软约束"和"资源硬约束"两个发展阶段。在"资源软约束"阶段,国际煤价、中国GDP和能源消费具有长期均衡,偏离长期均衡时,主要表现为能源消费相对经济增长和国际煤价的被动调整,经济增长和国际煤价具有一定独立性。在"资源硬约束"阶段,国际煤价、中国GDP和能源消费仍具有长期均衡,虽然在此阶段能源消费对GDP弹性显著减小,但经济增长长期受能源消费和国际煤价双重约束,能源消费、国际煤价也都会基于长期均衡调整。在"资源硬约束"阶段,能源与中国经济的矛盾越来越突出。建议制定经济长期可持续发展规划,缓解过快能源需求增长,大力提升能源供给,重视国际煤炭定价权。

This paper analyses the relationship of international coal prices, China＇s GDP and energy consumption from the aspects of structure change, long-term equilibrium and short-term effects using panel data of China regions from 2000 to 2010. It proposes that Chinese economy can be divided into two stages of resource soft constraint＇ and resource hard constraint＇, taking year 2005 as the boundary line, based on the empirical results. In the stage of resource soft constraint＇, international coal prices, China＇s CDP and energy consumption have long-term equilibrium. When they departure from long-term equilibrium, it shows the passive regulation of energy consumption relative to economic growth as well as international coal prices, and the independence of economic growth and international coal prices. In the stage of resource hard constraint＇, international coal prices, China＇s GDP and energy consumption still have long-term equilibrium. Although in this stage the elasticity of energy consumption relative to Chinds GDP reduces evidently, economic growth is influenced by double restraint of energy consumption and international coal prices in long-term. In addition, energy consumption and international coal prices will regulate according to long-term equilibrium. In the stage of resource hard constraint＇, the contradiction between energy and China＇s economy has been more conflicting. Therefore, we should make planning of long-term and sustainable economic development, ease the amount of rapid growth demand of energy, promote increase the supply of energy, and attaches great importance to coal pricing in international markets.