基于业扩报装的全社会电量预测方法研究

Research on Forecasting Method of Whole Society Electricity Consumption Based on Business Expansion

电力系统需求侧业扩报装的容量是分析预测全社会用电量的一个重要参考指标,长期以来,都以定性分析为主,文章以安徽为例,在对相关变量进行季节性分解的基础上,建立业扩报装容量和全省全社会用电量之间的定量关系月度模型。结果表明所建模型预测结果具有较高参考意义,并适用于短期月度电量预测。

The capacity of business expansion from power system demand side is an important reference index to analyze and forecast the whole society electricity consumption. In the past years, the researches mainly have focused on qualitative analysis. In this paper, taking Anhui province as an example, on the basis of seasonal decomposition for the related variables, the model between the capacity of business ex- pansion and the whole society electricity consumption for month is built. The result shows that the predic- ting result of the model has better reference significance, and applied to forecast the short-term monthly e- lectricity consumntinn