基于ARIMA模型的安徽省城乡收入差距的预测

Prediction of Urban-Rural Income Gap in Anhui Province Based on ARIMA Model

根据1978～2012年安徽省城乡居民收入的时间序列数据，运用ARIMA模型，用SAS软件进行拟合，对安徽省城乡居民收入差距情况进行分析，给出了2013～2015年安徽省城乡居民绝对收入差距的预测值。结果显示城乡居民收入差距会继续扩大。

According to the time series data of urban-rural income gap of Anhui Province from 1978 to 2012,the income gap between urban and rural residents is analyzed with the ARIMA model and SAS fitting, and the absolute income gap from 2013 to 2015 is forecasted. The results show that the urban-rural income gap will keep enlarging.