ARIMA与指数平滑在区域高等教育规模预测中的比较研究

Comparing Research on ARIMA Model and Exponential Smoothing Model in Regional Higher Education Scale Forecasting

文章利用在校学生数作为区域高等教育规模指标,建立了基于四川省高等教育在校学生数据序列的ARIMA和指数平滑预测模型,并进行了比较,得出最优模型为ARIMA(2,1,5)模型;用此模型对四川省2013-2015年高等教育在校学生数做出了预测。结果表明,四川省高等教育在校学生数在近三年内仍会增长,但增长速度趋于缓慢,到2015年末,四川省高等教育在校学生数约为1163100人。

In this paper, the number of students as the scale of regional higher education index, ARIMA and exponential smoothing forecasting model was established based on the number of students in Sichuan higher education. The optimal model was ARIMA （2,1,5）model through comparing two models; Then forecasting the number of students in Siehuan higher education between 2013 and 2015 by ARIMA （2,1,5） model. The result shows that the number of students in Sichuan higher education will still grow in nearly three years, but the growth rate tends to slow, at the end of 2015, the number of students in Sichuan higher education is near about 1163100 people.