沿海区域承载力预警及对策——以天津市为例

The Evaluation of Coastal Areas' Ocean Environmental Carrying Capacity ——A Case Study of Tianjin

首先对海洋承载力的概念进行了论述,引出海洋承载力预警的概念.在总结论述海洋承载力预警的研究现状之后,提出"沿海区域可持续承载力"的概念.利用预警界限的设定与预警警情的描述,构建沿海区域可持续承载力的预警指标体系.随后,以天津为例,根据其2000—2009年各项为基础数据,计算天津海洋可持续承载力的各项评价指标,得出2000—2015年警情图和预警曲线图.结果显示,天津目前可持续承载力警情较为严重,需要从经济、环境、资源、科技4个方面进行相应的应对调整,来缓解天津的可持续承载力的严重警情.

The authors discussed the concept of ocean environmental carrying capacity. After summarizing the research situation on early warning of marine carrying capacity,we put forward the concept of“coastal zone sustainable carrying capacity”. Using the descriptions of setting and warning alarm,we constructed of early warning index system for sustainable carrying capacity of the coastal areas. Then,taking Tianjin as an example,according the required data during 2000-2009 as basic data,we calculated the evaluation indexes of sustainable marine carrying capacity in Tianjin,and got the alarm and warning curve during 2000-2015. Results show that the bearing capacity of Tianjin sustainable warning situation is very serious,and the corresponding adjustments are required from four aspects including economy,environment,resource and technology,to ease the serious warning of sustainable carrying capacity in Tianjin.