基于SWOT-AHP模型的低碳经济下我国石油工业发展战略研究

The Development Strategy of China's Oil Industry Based on SWOT-AHP Model

我国石油工业既是能源生产供应大户,也是耗能大户和二氧化碳排放大户.低碳经济的提出对我国石油工业的能源结构、能源技术水平、能源效率等方面提出更高要求,带来挑战的同时也为我国石油工业能源结构的优化以及发展方式的转变提供了难得的机遇.结合具有定性分析与定量分析相结合优势的层次分析法(AHP),建立了我国石油工业SWOT-AHP模型,准确分析了我国石油工业的内外部环境,最终得出我国石油工业应优先采取SO战略,即我国石油工业应依托国家政策和对外合作机会,加强低碳相关技术的研发,大力发展天然气业务,有序推进新能源业务.

China’s oil industry is not only a major energy supply,but also a big energy consumer and carbon dioxide emitter. The low-carbon economy raises higher requirements on energy structure,the level of energy technologies,energy efficiency and other aspect of China’s oil industry,and brings rare opportunities for China’s oil industry energy structure optimization and transformation of development mode. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process combining the advantage of qualitative and quantitative analysis,we established the SWOT-AHP model of China’s oil industry,accurately analyzed China’s oil industry internal and external environment,and ultimately concluded that China’s oil industry should prioritize SO strategy,which means that China’s oil industry should rely on national policies and international cooperation opportunities and strengthening the research and development of low-carbon related technology,vigorously develop the natural gas business and orderly propel new energy business.