安徽省入境旅游与经济增长相关性实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Inbound Tourism and Economic Growth in Anhui Province

根据1988—2012年安徽省入境旅游相关统计数据,通过协整检验、Granger因果检验等方法对安徽省入境旅游与当地经济增长关系进行研究,并建立两者间的"推拉效应"模型.结果表明:①安徽省入境旅游与当地经济增长存在长期稳定的因果关系:经济每增长1个百分点,入境旅游就增长1.828个百分点;国际旅游外汇收入每增长1个百分点,推动安徽地区生产总值增加0.481个百分点,地区经济对入境旅游发展的拉动作用更加明显.②安徽省入境旅游消费水平偏低,消费结构高级化指数小于100,入境旅游发展对地区经济的推动作用没有很好地发挥出来,因此刺激入境旅游发展仍是今后安徽省旅游业发展的重点.

According to the 1988-2012 inbound tourism statistics of Anhui Province,by using methods such as Cointegration,Granger causality test,we studied the relationship between tourism and local economic growth in Anhui Province,and establish the“push-pull effect” model between them. Results indicates that：①inbound tourism of Anhui Province exists long-term stability of causal relationship with local economic growth;if economy increases 1%,inbound tourism would increase 1.828%;if international tourism exchange income increases 1%,Anhui area production worth would be promoted to increase 0.481%;we concluded that area economic have more obvious promoting function on inbound tourism development.②The inbound tourism consumption in Anhui Province is in a low level,and the consumption structure upgrading index is less than 100,which meant that the promotion of inbound tourism on economic development is not very good developed,hence,stimulating the development of inbound tourism is still the focus of future tourism development in Anhui Province.