中国与东亚十国非对称经济收敛研究

Study on Asymmetric Economic Convergence between China and Ten East Asian Countries

中国作为东亚货币合作不可或缺的参与者,与其他东亚国家在经济发展水平上的趋同走势是东亚货币一体化的有利条件之一。在同时允许非对称收敛速度和收敛过程中可能存在的结构变化,且令结构变化的形式、个数和时点均内生决定的情况下,对1978—2011年中国与十个东亚国家之间的经济收敛性进行检验。结果显示,中国仅与日本、印尼和泰国存在经济收敛,且收敛速度存在非对称特性。在此基础上,进一步从金融、贸易和人力资本角度考察了经济收敛的成因,并给出东亚货币合作的政策建议。

Being an indispensable participant of east Asian Monetary Cooperation, China＇s economic convergence with other east Asian countries is one of favorable conditions for monetary integration. This pa- per studies economic convergence between China and ten east Asian countries during 1978 -2011, by allo- wing simultaneously for asymmetric convergence speed and structural breaks during convergence and letting the nature and timing of structural breaks to be endogenously determined. Results suggest that there are three countries, Japan, Indonesia and Thailand, displaying convergence with China, and convergence speed is asymmetric. Furthermore, this paper studies causes of economic convergence from the perspective of fi- nance, trade and human capital, and gives the policy proposals for monetary cooperation in east Asia.