经济制度质量对中国出口贸易影响的实证研究——基于改进引力模型的36国(地区)面板数据分析

Empirical Research on the Impact of the Quality of Economic System of China's Export: Improved Gravity Model Based on 36 Countries(or Regions) Panel Data Analysis

从引力方程的微观基础出发,构建包含经济制度质量的引力模型,并利用占中国对外贸易额85%以上的36个国家(地区)1995—2011年的面板数据,对经济制度质量和中国出口贸易之间的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,贸易伙伴的经济制度质量与中国出口贸易高度相关,经济制度质量较高的国家(地区)对中国出口贸易的引力较大,目前中国经济制度质量相对较低,对出口贸易的推动作用不显著。今后应进一步深化经济制度改革,提高经济制度质量,扩大与经济制度质量比较高的国家(地区)之间的经贸合作。

Starting from microscopic foundation of gravitational equations to construct a gravity model contains the quality of economic system, using the 1995 -2011 panel data of 36 countries or regions which accounts for more than 85% of China＇s foreign trade volume, this paper empirically tests the relationship between the quality of the economic system and China＇s export trade. The conclusion is that trading partner＇ s economic system quality is highly correlated with China＇s export trade and the national or regional with high quality of the economic system has the gravitational pull to China＇s export trade, the quality of China＂ s economic system not play its due role in promoting export trade. Economic system reform should be fur- ther deepened, economic and trade cooperation should be expanded with the high quality economic systems of countries or regions. The research findings will provide experience for optimal adjustment of the regional structure of China＇s export trade.