基本养老保险制度激励提前退休的实证研究

Empirical Study on Motivation Effect of China's Basic Old Age Insurance System for Early Retirement

对广东省21个地市10000名退休职工的问卷调查显示,有23.2%的男职工、16.1%的女职工属于提前退休,而推迟退休的男职工只有5.7%,女职工只有3.6%。实证结果显示,在考虑了其它控制变量的影响之后,男职工选择提前退休的每月养老金水平会提高5.2%,女职工会提高8.1%,表明当前基本养老保险制度存在对提前退休者的收益激励。这说明推迟退休并不吻合职工的实际行为,而现行基本养老保险制度也难以发挥延迟领取养老金年龄的激励作用。

This article, using survey data of 10,000 retired workers from 21 cities in Guangdong, finds that 23.2% of male workers and 16.1% of female workers retired before the official retirement age, while only 5.7% male workers and 3.6% of female workers retired after official retirement age. The regression model shows that dummy variable of early retirement has a significantly positive effect on retired workers＇ pension benefit. Early retired male workers earn 5.2% more pension benefit, while female workers earn 8. 1% more. These results demonstrate that the new policy is not fully adapted to the real retirement behavior of workers and the current old age pension system cant stimulate workers to retire much later. Finally, this article contributes six policy suggestions, which are indispensable to the new policy.