中国贸易政策的稳定性与出口效应的互动研究

An Interactive Analysis on Stability and Export Effect of Trade Policy in China

相较于政策的有效性而言,政策的稳定性没有受到足够的重视。本文从政府对政策的承诺和政策的波动性两个角度考察了中国贸易政策的稳定性现状,其次对含有贸易政策稳定性因素的扩展贸易引力模型进行了推导,并在此基础上,利用占中国出口额90%以上的97个代表性国家或地区1997-2011年的面板数据,实证考察了我国贸易政策稳定性对出口贸易发展的影响。结果表明:自1995年以来,中国贸易政策没有发生逆转;除了在1995―1997年和2004―2006年两个时间段发生了较大的波动外,我国的贸易政策保持了相对稳定;贸易政策的稳定性对贸易发展具有促进作用,一是通过为贸易主体提供稳定的政策预期而对贸易产生直接促进作用,再是,通过促进经济增长而对贸易发挥间接促进作用。

Compared to the effectiveness of policy, the stability has not been paid enough atten- tion. In this article, Firstly, the stability situation of trade policy in China is viewed from two an- gles of volatility and government＇s commitment to the policy. Secondly, trade gravity model is ex- tended to include policy stability factor. Based on the extended gravity model, using panel data of 97 representative nations and regions whose imports account for 90o//oo% of China＇s total export from 1997 to 2011, we make an empirical review on the effect on trade policy stability on export trade de- velopment. It shows that： trade policy has not been reversed since 1995, trade policy remains rela- tive stable except two periods of 1995-1997 and 2004-2006. Trade policy stability has promoting effect on the trade development, on one hand, directly promote trade by providing the trade main body with stable policy expectancy, on the other hand, indirectly promote trade by promoting eco- nomic growth.