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华北冬小麦干旱产量损失评估方法 被引量:14

Evaluation Method for Winter Wheat Yield Loss of Drought Disaster in North China
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摘要 根据气候相似、农业生产水平相近的原则将华北分成15个亚区,利用1970-2010年华北逐日气温和降水资料计算逐日综合气象干旱指数(CI指数),采用线性内插法将相邻土壤墒情观测资料处理成逐日数据,通过对比逐日CI指数与土壤墒情资料,分区域和发育阶段对冬小麦发生干旱时的CI指数评判标准进行订正,并基于该指标建立冬小麦干旱累积标准指数,同时结合冬小麦单产资料,构建冬小麦干旱产量损失评估模型。结果表明,冬小麦生育期内CI指数与对应的土壤墒情变化趋势基本一致;各亚区修订后的冬小麦干旱指标均与直接用CI指数判别干旱的指标存在较大差异,且不同亚区冬小麦干旱指标不一致,其中豫西、鲁北、鲁东南、京津、豫中东干旱指标较小,鲁中、冀东北、冀中、冀南干旱指标较大;华北15个亚区冬小麦干旱产量损失评估模型均通过0.05水平的F检验,冬小麦干旱累积标准指数与干旱产量损失具有显著的相关性,其中京津、晋中、晋南、鲁中、鲁东南、豫西等亚区的模型历史评估结果与对应的干旱产量损失相关性显著。模型能较准确地评估冬小麦发生干旱时的产量损失,具有一定的应用和深入研究价值。 The North China was divided into fifteen production level. The daily meteorological drough regions according to similarity principle of climate and agricultural t composite indices (CI) were calculated based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of observation stations from 1970 to 2010, and the contiguous soil moisture status observation data was converted into daily data by using simplified linear interpolation method. The evaluation criterion of CI for winter wheat in drought was revised according to the regions and growth stages by comparing of CI and daily soil moisture data, and standard cumulative indices of drought was established based on new indices. The evaluation model of yield loss in drought for winter wheat was established, considering to unit yield data of winter wheat. The results showed that the change of daily CI index was similar to that of soil moisture, and the corrected indices of 15 regions were quite different from the discrimination standards of meteorological drought composite indices ( CI indices). Drought indices varied among regions, which was lower in western Henan, northern Shandong, southeast Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin and mid-eastern Henan, and higher in middle Shandong, northeast Hebei, middle Hebei and south Hebei. The evaluation models of yield loss in drought for winter wheat in 15 regions passed the 0. 05 significance test, and the standard cumulative index of drought was significantly correlated to winter wheat yield loss. It was significant between historical evaluation results and yield loss of drought ( P 〈 0.05 ) in Beijing, Tianjin, middle Shanxi, south Shanxi, middle Shandong, southeast Shandong and west Henan. The evaluation models evaluated the yield loss in drought for winter wheat accurately, and the results could used for practice.
出处 《中国农业气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第6期696-702,共7页 Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021)
关键词 冬小麦 干旱指标 产量损失 评估模型 Winter wheat Drought index Yield loss Evaluation model
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