北方农牧交错带人口胁迫与耕地利用的相互关系

Relationship Between Population Stress and Land Use in Ecotone Between Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in North China

该文以我国北方农牧交错带内的安塞县为例 ,构建了一个适合于区域范围、人与耕地关系简单平衡模型 ,并从中推出了人与耕地关系平衡胁迫力计算式。在分析该县农业生产用地构成、耕地及粮食的历史动态变化之后 ,根据人口预测结果与有关参数值 ,以 5年为步长计算分析了 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 30年 ,不同粮食自给水平下的人口承载能力胁迫力、耕地面积需求胁迫力、耕地生产率胁迫力。确定了有利于实现“退耕还林草”生态环境建设的较合理的粮食自给率 。

A case study in Ansai County of Shaanxi Province in Ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in North China conducted by developing a population land equilibrium model that can be applied to a region. Based on the model the population land equilibrium stress formulae were derived. After analyzing the components of agricultural land use, the historical trends of cultivated land, and the food products, the stress of population bearing capacity, cultivated land demands, land productivity, on different food self reliance were calculated on the basis of population prediction and some relevant parameters, taking a step of 5 years within 2000 to 2030. The food self reliance percentages were 100%～70%. Rational food self reliance percentages were proposed, which will facilitate the policy of “returning cultivated land to wood and grass land”, and will put the ecological environment construction into effect.