要素价格扭曲与工业产能过剩的关系——基于1991—2010年的样本数据

Relationship between Factor Price Distortion and Excessive Industrial Production Capacity:Based on Sample Data during 1991-2010

从要素市场中的3大投入要素———资本、劳动力和能源入手,测算1991—2010年中国工业产能过剩程度和三要素价格扭曲程度,并通过构建VAR模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,考察了各要素价格扭曲程度与产能过剩之间的长期均衡关系和短期冲击影响。实证结果表明:产能过剩与各要素价格扭曲之间存在长期稳定均衡关系和误差修正机制,其中劳动力和能源的价格扭曲对产能过剩具有正向影响,资本价格扭曲具有负向影响;能源价格扭曲对产能过剩偏离均衡的调整力度最大;资本和能源的价格扭曲对产能过剩的短期冲击影响较大,而劳动力更多作用于远期;劳动力价格扭曲对产能过剩变化的解释力度最大,资本价格扭曲的解释力度相对最小。

Starting with three input factors,namely capital,labor and energy,this paper measures the degrees of excess production capacity and price distortion of three input factors from 1991 to 2010. Then through VAR model,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,it an- alyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term impact between price distortion and excess production capacity. The empirical re- suits show as follows： there are a stable long-run equilibrium relationship and the error correction mechanism between excess capacity and price distortions of three factors, namely the price distortions of labor and energy have positive influence on excess production capacity, and that of capital has negative influences^the adjustment effect of energy price distortion on excess production capacity is the largest when excess produc- tion capacity deviates the equilibrium state,the short-term shocks of price distortions of capital and energy have large impacts on excess produc- tion capacity,and the price distortion of labor has more effects in long-term;the explanation of labor price distortion is the largest to the change of excess production capacity,and that of capital is the least.