蔬菜价格波动实证分析及调控措施——以山东省为例

The Empirical Analysis on Fluctuation and of Vegetable Price and Regulation Policy——Take Shandong Province for Example

本文基于1990年-2011年的数据,运用VAR模型,对山东省蔬菜价格波动影响因素及传导进行了实证分析,得出蔬菜零售价格自身、农业生产资料价格、蔬菜产量、蔬菜生产价格、现金流通量和居民可支配收入对山东蔬菜零售价格的贡献度依次为35.09%、16.71%、0.77%、10.65%、34.53%、2.26%,并且,流通对蔬菜零售价格产生着重要影响。在此基础上,提出了蔬菜价格波动的调控措施。

This paper analyze the influencing factors of Shandong＇ s vegetable price fluctuations, according to the data from 1990 to 2011. we use empirical research methods based on VAR model to test whether they are fluctuations＇ origins and find the relationship between the vegetable price and its origins. The results show that： Vegetable Price, Price Index of Agricultural Means of Production, Vegetable Production, Vegetable Production Price, The Cash in Circulation { M0 } , Disposable Income of Residents account the fluctuations of vegetable price with a percentage of 35.09% ,16.71% ,0.77% ,10.65% ,34.53% ,2.26% ,indicating that vegetable price and the cash in circulation are the main factors to promote changes in vegetable price, we put forward the regulation policy of fluctuation of vegetable price.