基于概率论-逻辑学的隧道各方关系与风险研究

Relation and Risk in Owner and Contractors of Tunnel Projects Based on Probability and Logic Theories

基于经典概率论及逻辑学,提出了用于隧道及地下工程参建各方关系与风险概率评定方法.结合工程实例从工程参建各方的逻辑关系角度,构建了适用于隧道及地下工程风险评价的各种逻辑概率树模型.对比分析发现,或门模型中工程风险概率大于参建各方概率的最大值,与门模型中工程风险概率小于参建各方概率的最小值,而混合门模型介于参建各方概率最大值与最小值之间.故在隧道建设过程中,应调整参建各方协作关系,建立起与门模型关系,尽量避免构成或门模型关系.

Based on classic probability and logic theories,a probability evaluation method was presented to assess relation and risk in owner and contractors of tunnel and underground projects. By analyzing real project cases,several logic probability tree models were built from the perspective of the logic relationship between owner and contractors. By comparison,risk probability of the OR gate model was larger than the maximum probability value of owner and contractors; risk probability of AND gate model was less than the minimum probability value of owner and contractors; risk probability of hybrid gate model was between the maximum probability value and the minimum probability value of owner and contractors. Therefore,in tunnel construction,the cooperative relationship between all project parties should be adjusted to form a relation of AND gate model and avoid a relation of OR gate model.