欠发达地区低碳经济影响因素动态冲击效应研究——以甘肃省为例

Dynamic Impact Effect Analysis of Influencing Factors of Low-carbon Economic in Underdeveloped Regions——Take Gansu Province as the Example

基于kaya恒等式并结合LMDI分解法确定二氧化碳排放的影响因素是产业结构、能源结构和能源强度,用VAR模型分析甘肃省1989-2011年间二氧化碳排放影响因素动态冲击效应,研究发现,二氧化碳排放和产业结构、能源结构、技术水平之间存在稳定的动态影响关系。从长期来看,产业结构变化主要对二氧化碳排放表现为正向冲击效应;能源结构对二氧化碳排放的冲击效应趋向平稳,但能源结构对二氧化碳排放的冲击方向不明朗;能源强度总体上表现为稳定的负向冲击效应。短期内二氧化碳排放自身和能源结构的方差贡献率较大,长期来看,产业结构的方差贡献率最大。

Based on the Kaya identities and combining the LMDI decomposition method,it showed that the factors affect the carbon dioxide emissions are the industrial structures,the energy structures and the energy intensity.The analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions factors＇ dynamic shock effects in Gansu province during 1989-2011with the VAR model showed that there are stable dynamic effects relationships among the carbon dioxide emissions,the industrial structures,the energy structures and the technical levels.In the long run,changes in the industrial structures mainly had positive shock effects on the carbon dioxide emissions.The energy structures＇ shock effects on the carbon dioxide emissions tend to be smooth.But the energy structure＇s shock effects＇ direction on the carbon dioxide emissions is uncertain.The energy intensity overall showed a stable negative shock effect on the carbon dioxide emissions.In the short run,the carbon dioxide emissions and the energy structures showed large contributions rate to the carbon dioxide emissions＇ variance.In the long term,the industrial structures＇ variance contribution rate is the largest one.