我国三次产业间相互拉动关系研究

Research on Pull Relations of Three Industries in China

十八大报告中提出要推进经济结构战略性调整,这是加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向,必须以改善需求结构、优化产业结构、促进区域协调发展、推进城镇化为重点,着力解决制约经济持续健康发展的重大结构性问题.现阶段要进一步促进中国经济的继续深入协调发展,必须高度重视三次产业间的相互协调促进作用,使农业、工业和建筑业以及服务业稳固协调发展.这不仅是关系经济社会的发展,更是关系民生的重大问题.本文基于VAR模型对1978～2011年三次产业数据进行分析,得出短期和长期中三次产业间相互拉动关系,凸显第三产业的重要作用,并提出相关的发展建议,具有理论和现实意义.

The strategic adjustment of the economic structure has been put forward in the 18th National Con- gress of CPC, which is the major goal of transforming the pattern of economic development. It is necessary to take improving the demand structure, optimizing the industrial structure, promoting coordinated regional development, and urbanization as the key point; and strive to solve the major structural problems constraining the sustained and healthy economic development. At this stage, to promote further the coordinated development of China＇ s economy, we must attach great importance to the coordination role in the three industries; and must make agriculture, indus- try, construction industry, and service industry stable coordinated development. This is not only related to the eco- nomic and social development, it is the major issue of people＇ s livelihood. The result shows that the three indus- tries has pull relationship among them in short term and long - term, which highlights the important role of the terti- ary industry, and the paper finally puts forward related suggestions with theoretical and practical significance.