综合交通客运需求及运输结构预测研究——以河北省为例

The Forecasting Research on the Residents' Comprehensive Transportation Demands and the Transportation Structure——Taking Hebei province as an example

结合经济计量分析特点,提出了基于典型相关分析的平滑指数和回归模型的交通经济数据分析方法。以河北为例对1990-2010年交通运输与经济统计数据进行实证分析,建立综合客运周转量预测模型。结果显示随着人均收入提高和GDP增长,综合客运周转量呈上升趋势,综合客运周转量增长速度低于GDP增速度,两者之间为非线性关系;综合客运周转量与人口增长呈指数增长趋势。提出了综合交通运输投资应适度保持与经济增长相平衡,应由跨越式发展转为适度发展的建议。

Combining with the characteristics of the econometric analysis, this paper puts forward an analytical method based on the smoothness index of canonical correT.ation analysis and the economic data of the push-pull effect model. Hence, according to the empirical, anal.ysis on the trans portation demands and the economic statistical data of Hebei province in 1990-2010, this paper not only presents the relationship between the devel opment of national economy and transportation demands in Hebei but also set up a predictive model of the comprehensive passenger turnover. And the results indicate that as the growth of per capita income and GDP, the comprehensive passenger turnover and GDP show an trend of rapid in crease. Clearly, Comprehensive passenger turnover growth rate is lower than the GDP growth rate,they are not in a linear relationship. Compre hensive passenger turnover and population growth show a trend of exponential increase. This paper puts forward that the comprehensive transpor tation investments should be moderate and keep balanced with the economic growth and should shift from the leapfrog style to the moderate style.