基于Logistic模型的农村土地流转意愿及其影响因素分析——以东海县为例

The Analysis of Land Transferrence Willingness and Influencing Factor Based on Logistic Model——Taking Donghai County as an example

规模化、集约化已成为农业发展的必然趋势,而其又必须以土地流转的高效化为前提。本文以东海县实地调研数据为样本,采用Logistic模型分析农户的土地流转意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:文化水平、预期收益、家庭劳动力数量、非农收入比、土地流转历史及对土地相关政策的了解程度6个因素对农户土地流转意愿影响显著,性别、年龄、是否参加养老保险3个因素对农户土地流转意愿影响不显著。

Large scale and intensity have become the inevitable trend of agricultural development, which must be based on the high efficiency of the land circulation . This article is based on the investigation data of Donghai County, we use the Logistic model to analyse the farmers willingness of Land transferrence and its effects. The results show that six factors have significant effect on Farmers＇ willingness to transfer the land, and there are： literacy, expected return ,the number of family labor ,non farm income ratio ,land circulation history and the understanding of the land policy While gender, age and endowment insurance have little influence on Land transferrence.