基于鱼群优化预测模型的变压器可靠性预测研究

Research of Transformer Reliability Prediction on Fish Swarm Optimization Prediction Model

介绍了变压器故障和油中溶解气体的关系及三比值法。分析了鱼群优化算法的原理以及模型的误差检验,针对传统灰色GM(1,1)预测模型中背景值构造的问题,采用鱼群算法对模型参数进行优化。应用Matlab进行编程,通过实例分析将鱼群优化灰色预测模型与三比值方法相结合对变压器的未来故障做了预测,得出了与实际较吻合的预测结果,验证了鱼群优化灰色预测模型的有效性。

This paper introduces the relationship of dissolved gases in transformer fault and oil and three ratio method. It analyses of the principle of fish swarm optimization algorithm and the model error test. In view of the traditional grey GM （1,1） forecasting structural problems in background value model, the algorithm to optimize the model parameters. The application of Matlab programming, through the analysis of examples will fish swarm optimization grey prediction model and the three ratio method combining the transformer fault prediction of future. The actual results are consistent with the predicted results; and it verifies the validity of the fish swarm optimization of grey prediction model.