现代商贸流通发展对浙江农业经济增长影响的实证研究

Empirical study on effect of modern distribution development on Zhejiang agricultural economic growth

选取浙江省1985—2011年时间序列数据,以C-D生产函数为基础,建立农业生产总值与现代商贸流通发展等相关影响因素之间的计量经济模型,分别从现代商贸流通发展变量的一次方和二次方两个层面进行了实证检验。结果表明:浙江省现代商贸流通发展变量对农业生产总值变量具有积极的正向促进作用,现代商贸流通发展的二次方变量也具有正向的数量关系,当现代商贸流通发展水平较低时,商贸流通对农业生产总值的促进作用并不明显,随着现代商贸流通发展水平不断提高,商贸流通促进农业生产效果非常显著。研究还发现,农业资本投入、劳动投入和农产品出口贸易对农业生产总值都具有正向促进作用,而农村人力资本、农村就业结构和农业机械化水平对农业生产总值影响并不显著。

Based on the C-D production function , econometric model between agricultural GDP and modern distribu-tion development variables etc .were established , by time series data during 1985-2011 of Zhejiang .Empirical test were operated from one and two times square of modern distribution development .Empirical results demonstrated that there was a positive promotion for agricultural GDP from modern distribution development , so were the two times square of modern distribution development in Zhejiang .As the level of modern distribution development became high, the promoting impulses became stronger.Study also found that, capital input, labor input and agricultural in-ternational trade had the positive impact on agricultural GDP , while agricultural human capital , agricultural employ structure and agricultural mechanization did not show the significant impact .