社会保障支出与城镇化——基于时间序列的实证分析

Social Security Expenditure and Urbanization——An Empirical Analysis Based on Time Series

运用VAR模型对财政社会保障支出水平变动量、社会保险基金支出水平变动量与城镇化水平变动量间相互关系进行了实证研究。通过对协整、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲及方差分解的分析可知:我国城镇化对社会保障支出的影响较明显,而社会保障支出对城镇化发展有一定影响,但影响较小;在一定程度上,不完善的社会保障制度,尤其是不完善的社会保险制度对城镇化发展还有一定的阻碍。因此,在我国城镇化的进程中应加大对社会保障制度的建设力度,加快社会保险制度的统筹,促进社会保障与城镇化协调发展。

This paper uses the VAR model to empirically study on the relationships among the social security financial expenditure variation level, social insurance fund expenditure variation level and the urbanization variation level. The analysis of eointegration, Granger causality test, pulse and variance decomposition shows that China＇ s urbanization has obvious influence on social security expenditure, and the social security expenditure has certain effect on urban development, but the effect is small. To some extent, the imperfect social security system, especially the imperfect social insurance system, still exists some obstacles to the development of urbanization. Therefore, in China＇ s urbanization, we should intensify the construction of social security system, speed up the social insurance system as a whole and promote the coordinated development of social security and urbanization.