我国省域CO_2排放量的动态演进分析——兼论与环境规制和造林活动之间的关系

Research on Dynamic Evolution Analysis of CO_2 Emissions of Provinces in China——Concurrently Discuss the Relationship with Environmental Regulation and Afforestation Activity

基于我国30个省份2003—2011年的CO2排放量数据,利用面板数据的向量自回归方法和脉冲响应方法分析碳排放量与环境规制和造林活动之间的关系。结果表明:30个省份CO2的平均排放量以10.7%的速度逐年上升;不同省份CO2排放量之间的差距不断拉大;环境规制对各省CO2排放量的影响呈现先增后减的趋势;造林活动前期减排作用不明显,但减排效果具有长期性。

Based on the estimation of CO2 emissions of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2011 in China, this paper analyzed the change trend of CO2 emissions with the kernel density estimation method. Meanwhile, the relationship of CO2 emissions, environmental regulation and afforestation activity was also analyzed by using the panel vector autoregression and impulse response method. The results showed that the CO2 emissions of 30 provinces increased by 10.7% year by year from 2003 to 2011; the gap was widening in different provinces; the impact of environmental regulation on CO2 emission presented a trend from increase to decrease; the impact of afforestation activity on CO2 emissions was not obvious but had a long-term effect.