夏季巢湖叶绿素a的时空分布特征研究

Study on Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Temporal and Spatial Distribution in the Summer of Chaohu Lake

以2013年5,6,7月3个月份的巢湖实测叶绿素a浓度值为基础,并利用地统计学方法中的克里金插值方法得到叶绿素a浓度的空间分布,分析并探究了巢湖的富营养化程度。结果表明,巢湖蓝藻的分布受风向、外源输入等因素影响变化较大,实测巢湖表层水样叶绿素a质量浓度由5月份的16.615μg/L上升到6月份的238.942μg/L和7月份的311.659μg/L,可知巢湖目前仍处于严重的富营养化水平。根据叶绿素a的时空分布规律,研究并预测了7月份下旬,巢湖东湖区出现大面积蓝藻水华的可能性很大。模拟结果与7月19日巢湖蓝藻水华爆发相吻合,证明克里金差值法适合于模拟巢湖叶绿素a的空间分布特征。

In order to meet the needs of Chaohu cyanobacterial blooms early warning and forecasting, we based on the value of chlorophyll-a concentration of Chaohu Lake in May, June, July 2013, Kriging interpolation method which belongs to the geostatistical methods was used to get the spatial distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration. The eutrophication of Chaohu Lake was analyzed. The results showed that Chaohu cyanobacteria distribution was mainly changed by wind, exogenous factors input, ect. The chlorophyll-a concentration increased from 16.615 μg/L in May up to 238.942 μg/L 311.659 μg / L in June and July, separately. It showed that Chaohu eutrophication was still in a high level. According to the spatial and temporal distribution of chlorophyll-a, we study and predict that a large area of algal blooms will possibility outbreak in the eastern half of Chaohu Lake. Simulation results was coincided with Chaohu algal blooms on July 19,which proved the Kriging interpolation method is suitable for simulation of Chaohu spatial distribution of chlorophyll-a.