农户贷款信用风险实证分析——以陕西三原、泾阳农户为例

The Empirical Analysis of Farmer Loan Credit Risk ---Taking San Yuan City Shaanxi Province as an Example

农户贷款违约是影响农信社资金发放的主要问题，如何提取主要指标，评判农户是否违约是当前各方的迫切要求。文中选取680户农户作为样本，首先利用因子分析法提取主要的信用指标，基此利用Logistic回归方法构建模型，计算出农户是否违约的概率，以期从客观上给农信社判定农户的信用提供一定的依据。

Farmer loan credit risk is the main problem that affect rural credit coop bank in releasing the funds. How to extract the main factors, and judge whether the farmers are delinquent parties is an urgent issue. The paper selects 680 households as a sample. The paper first uses factor analysis to extract major credit fac- tors, and on basis of the analysis, the paper uses logistic regression model to calculate the probability of delin- quent farmers in order to objectively determine the farmers＇ credit and provide a basis for coop banks.