北方八省市水资源承载力研究

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Eight Provinces of Northern China

基于2009年自然、社会经济以及水资源相关数据,选取水资源利用率、缺水率、灌溉率、降水量、人均占有水资源量、生态用水率6个指标作为评价因素,应用模糊综合评判模型,对北方八省市水资源承载力进行了研究。结果表明,该研究区综合评分值高于0.570,水资源开发已有一定规模,但仍有一定潜力,水资源供给在一定程度上能满足区域发展需要。对8个评价子区域而言,承载力状况差异很大,北京、天津、河北(京津冀)水资源承载能力比较脆弱,而山西、内蒙古、辽宁、山东、河南水资源承载能力相对较强,最后针对不同地区的水资源承载状况,提出了相应的措施。

Based on the relevant data of nature,society,economics and water resources of eight provinces of northern China from 2009,six main evaluation factors were selected including use efficiency of water resources,water deficient ratio,irrigation ration of arable land,amount of precipitation,per capita water resources and ecological water use rate,and quantitatively researched water resources carrying capacity of eight provinces of northern China by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that the comprehensive grade of the study area was greater than 0.570,and the current water exploitation and use have reached a considerable scale,and there still has a water carrying capacity.For the eight sub-areas,the water resources carrying capacity status is very different;Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province have a low water resources carrying capacity,while water resources carrying capacity of other regions are relatively strong.Finally,according to different regions of the water resources carrying condition,the corresponding measures were puts forward.