中国碳排放周期、趋势与影响因素分析

Analysis on the Cycle,Trend and Influence Factors of the Carbon Emissions in China

本文尝试运用经验模态分解方法(EMD)对1902年以来我国碳排放进行周期分解以及趋势分析。并在灰色关联分析结果的基础上,对影响我国碳排放总量的各指标因素,进行了EMD趋势分析。主要得到了以下研究结论:(1)自1902年以来,我国碳排放总量不断攀升,总体呈现指数式增长态势。(2)我国碳排放存在70年和106年的准周期波动,未来一段时间内碳排放总量将继续以指数方式高速上升,并于2025年前后碳排放量达到峰值,之后碳排放趋势将有所放缓。(3)人均GDP、能源消费总量,农业、工业、建筑业、交通运输仓储邮电通信业以及批发和零售贸易餐饮业生产总值等7项指标与我国碳排放均显示出显著的关联度,关联系数均在0.8以上,按照指标关联系数大小排列为,能源消费量>农业>人均GDP>工业>交通运输仓储邮电通信业>批发和零售贸易餐饮业。(4)从各影响因素的EMD分解趋势来看,各影响因素均表现出增长态势,由此分析出我国碳排放量在未来一段时间内继续攀升的态势将继续维持。

This paper analyzed the cycle and trend of the carbon emissions in China, using the method of empirical mode decomposition（EMD）. The influence factors of the carbon emissions is also analyzed, based on the result of grey correlation a- nalysis. The conclusions are drawn： 1 ） The total quantity of the carbon emissions in China is growing constantly, from 1902. Its total trend is index. 2） The fluctuations of carbon emission have 70 year and 106 year time scale. The total quantity of the carbon emissions in China will grow highly in future, and reach a new peak in 2025. 3 ） The influence factors which is per ca- pita GDP, total quantity of energy consumption, agriculture, industry, building trade, transportation storage and posts and tele- communications, wholesale and retail trade restaurants, are relevant significantly. The correlation coefficients are above 0.8. From big to small, its order is total quantity of energy consumption, agriculture, per capita GDP, industry, transportation stor- age and posts and telecommunications, wholesale and retail trade restaurants. 4）The high growing trend will be existed for a long time, basing on the the trend of the influence factors by EMD.