基于IO-SDA模型的广东省外贸隐含碳的分解分析

Decomposition Analysis on Embodied Carbon in Guangdong's Foreign Trade based on the IO-SDA Model

本文运用1997—2011年投入产出的数据,通过结构分解分析方法,将广东省对外贸易隐含碳排放的影响分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。研究结果表明:①1997—2011年,规模效应对出口隐含碳增长的贡献高达4.27亿吨;进口碳减排量增加了3.23亿吨。技术效应对出口隐含碳的贡献值为-3.42亿吨;进口碳减排量减少了2.87亿吨。结构效应对进出口隐含碳的作用较弱,总体来说都是有利于其碳排放量的减少。②机械设备制造业是出口隐含碳增加最多的部门,纺织服装业是出口隐含碳减少最多的部门,进口碳减排量增长最多的部门是机械设备制造业,进口碳减排量减少最多的部门是化学工业。

The influence of Guangdong＇s foreign trade embodied carbon would have been decomposed into the scale effect, structure effect and technical effect through the structural decomposition analysis method by using the input-output data in 1997--2011. The re- suits show that： （1）from 1997 to 2011, the contribution of scale effect on exports embodied carbon grows up to 427 million tons while the quantity imported carbon emissions increased 323 million tons. Technology effects on exports embodied carbon＇s contribu- tion grows up to - 342 million tons while the quantity of imported carbon emissions decreased 287 million tons. Structure effect has a weaker impact on both import and export of implicit carbon while it is conducive to reduce its carbon emissions on the whole. （2）In terms of sector structure decomposition, mechanical equipment manufacturing industry is the department that increase the most in ex- port embodied carbon quantity. Textile clothing industry is the department that decreases the most in exported embodied carbon quan- tity. The quantity of imported carbon emissions increased the most in mechanical equipment manufacturing industry. The quantity ofimported carbon emissions decrease the most in chemical industry. The quantity of imported carbon emissions decrease the most in chemical industry.