影响我国通货膨胀的经济因素分析——基于ADL模型估计

Analysis of Economic Factors Influencing China's Inflation——Based on ADL Model Estimation

治理通货膨胀、保持物价水平稳定是中国货币政策的主要目标之一,而目前影响中国物价水平的原因十分复杂。研究表明,通胀预期因素、供给因素和货币供应量是中国通货膨胀的主要决定因素。资产价格和外部因素虽然在统计上不显著,但是房价和外汇储备的连续增长使得通胀水平有了上升的动力。为了防止通货膨胀水平的上升,政府应采取以下政策:PPI可以作为CPI的先行经济指标;利用政策积极引导通胀预期;积极推动人民币国际化改革;规范房地产供给制度,坚持制定并实施房地产调控政策。

Inflation management and maintainance of price stability, is one of the main goal of monetary policy in China, and factors influencing the price level are very complex. The study show that inflation expectations, supply factors and money supply are the main determinants for China＇s inflation. While asset prices and external factors are not statistically significant, the continuous growth in house prices and foreign exchange reserves makes inflation with rising power. So we suggest make PPI as a leading indicator of the CPI, use policy to actively guide the expected, actively promote reform of RMB internationalization, requlate the houseing supply system, insist on makeing and implementing neal estate requlation policy.