改进的信息扩散模型在电力事故风险评估中的应用

Power Accident Risk Assessment Based on Improved Information Diffusion Model

分析电力事故风险,对电力企业管理者规避风险、提高安全管理水平尤为重要。传统的风险评估中大多是凭借专家的主观经验来定性分析或者应用概率统计法、指标体系等方法来定量分析,但是,传统的风险评估方法并不完全适用于电力事故风险评估定量指标样本量小、不能完全精确反映总风险的特点。改进的信息扩散模型满足电力事故风险评估的特点,应用此方法对2007-2011年的电力事故风险进行分析,得到各风险水平下的概率和估计值。对计算结果进行分析,提出要重视电力事故安全管理、特别是要提高电力建设事故安全水平的结论,从而为管理者提供风险评估参考依据,并为其制定安全管理措施指引了方向。

Analyzing power accident risk is beneficial to avoid risk reasonably and to improve the level of safety management.Traditional risk assessment are mostly expert＇s subjective method,probability statistics method and index system method ,but those methods are not applicable to electric power accident risk assessment whose sample Size is small and index can＇t fully reflect the total risk.Therefore,this paper put forward the improved information diffusion model and used the method to analyze power accident risk from 2007 to 2011 ,concluded the probability and the estimate of each level of risk.At the end,the paper proposed to attach importance of electric power safety management,focus on raising the level of the power construction safety,which provided reference and guided the direction for its subsequent management for managers.