中国人口流动与城镇化格局变动趋势研究——基于“四普”、“五普”、“六普”长表数据的比较分析

Study of Population Movements and the Changes in the Pattern of Urbanization

文章利用历次人口普查数据分析了1990～2010年中国城镇化格局变化及趋势演变,并就城镇化格局的合理性及变动成因展开探讨.研究结果表明：当前中国的城镇化正处于大城市主导的快速推进阶段,并在未来一段时期内仍会持续;但城镇化的速度会由于中国农村可流动人口减少而有所减缓.1990～2010年中国城镇化格局由分散趋向集中.城镇人口集中趋向东部沿海省区、典型城市群以及100万人以上的大城市.齐普夫指数测算结果证实了以2000年为时间节点的中国城镇化格局由分散化向集中化的转变,目前中国城镇化格局正朝着合理化方向发展,但七大区域之间存在显著差异.人口流动尤其是跨省跨地区的人口流动是引致中国城镇化格局变动的主导力量,城镇化速度与人口流动速度同步.

Based on the previous census data, the article analyzes the changes and the trends in the pattern of urbani- zation,while discusses the rationality and causes of it. The findings can be summarized as follows： （ 1 ） Now the level of China＇s Urbanization is in a stage of rapid advanced by the leading cities,and it will continue in the future. However,the rate of urbanization will slow because of the rural migrant population will decrease in the future. （2）1990 -2010 Chiua＇s urbanization pattern from scattered tends to concentrate. Urban population is concentrated towards the eastern coastal prov- inces, the typical urban agglomerations and cities more than 100 million people. （3）This centralization trend has been con- firmed by Zipf index. And now the pattern of urbanization in China is moving in the direction of rationalization,but the difference there are significant differences between regions. （4）Population movements, especially the inter-provincial mi- gration,was the most important reason of the changes in the pattern of China＇s urbanization. Urbanization and population movements highly synchronized.