基于帕金森定律的关键链缓冲设置方法

Buffer sizing methods of critical chain based on Parkinson's law

为合理确定关键链项目管理中的缓冲时间,考虑帕金森定律对人心理行为的影响,建立了一种新的活动完成时间分布假设,并基于该假设提出了考虑平均时间偏差的项目缓冲设置方法和考虑并行关系的接驳缓冲设置方法。运用新方法所确定的项目缓冲值大于传统的根方差法所确定的缓冲值,而接驳缓冲值则小于根方差法所确定的缓冲值。仿真实验结果表明,考虑平均时间偏差的项目缓冲值能够为项目提供更真实可靠的安全工期保障;同时,采用较小的接驳缓冲值不会对项目最终计划工期造成显著影响。

Considering the effect of Parkinson＇s law on human psychological behavior, a new assumption of activity completion time in critical chain project scheduling was proposed. Based on this assumption, the project buffer set ting method by considering average time deviation and the feeding buffer setting method by considering parallel rela tionship were designed. Project buffer size determined by the new method was greater than that of Root Square Er ror （RSE） method, but the feeding buffer size of this method was smaller than that of RSE method. The simulation results showed that the new project buffer setting method could provide more reliable security time for the project. Besides, adopting smaller feeding buffer sizes would not cause any significant influence on the project duration.