基于低碳目标的西部地区产业发展格局研究

A STUDY OF LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN REGION OF CHINA

产业发展格局一直是经济地理学的研究核心,一个区域产业结构的合理与否将直接影响到区域经济的发展。西部大开发战略实施以来,西部地区在产业发展取得巨大成就的同时,产业结构调整并没有取得实质性进展,东西部发展不平衡的主要问题已经从经济增长速度方面转变为产业结构层次的差距及由此引起的增长质量上的差距。可见,西部地区的产业发展结构还有待进一步完善;特别是在全球气候变化带来的节能减排压力下,西部地区需要重视当地生态环境状况,积极进行产业结构调整,构筑低碳型产业体系。本文在已有的研究基础上,分析我国西部地区产业发展现状以及其存在的问题,研究测算西部地区主要环境污染物排放趋势,进而探讨西部地区产业结构优化调整的方向,提出构建低碳型产业体系的政策和建议。

Regional industrial structure has been argued to be critical to regional development. ＂Western Region Development Program＂ is a very important development program of Macro-region approved by the State Council of PRC in 2000. Since then, the Western Region of China has achieved fast industrial development. But it has still lagged a lot in terms of industrial structure and economic development, compared to national average. It is against such a background that this paper will take a comprehensive examination on the further industrial development in the Western Region of China. Firstly, we analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of regional industrial structure from 2000 to 2010, by using data from national statistical yearbooks as well as provincial statistical yearbooks. Secondly, we employ Vector Auto Regression model to calculate CO2, SO2 and other major environment pollutants＇ emission trends in 2011-2020, based on data analysis of 2000-2009. Lastly, we try to provide some advices and suggestions for the further industrial development in the Western Region of China. Our examination shows that： ①Western China enters a rapid industrialization period; ② Westem China is gradually emerging as China＇s most important base of raw materials, especially coal, oil, gas and important metal and non-metal mineral resources; ③CO2, SO2 and other major environment pollutants＇ emission of Western China in 2011-2020 will be in an upward trend;④further industrial development in western China should give full attention to resource conservation and recycling, and take the road of low carbon and sustainable development.