中国区域经济增长要素贡献及路径判定——基于省际面板数据的实证

An Empirical Research on China's Regional Economic Growth Factor Contribution and Path Determination——Based on the Inter-provincial Panel Data

在经典增长理论框架下,将1952-2011年以改革开放及西部大开发为节点划分为三个时期,利用面板数据模型分别估算了中国东、中、西部区域经济增长中各要素的贡献率,并对增长方式进行了判定。结果发现:整个时期各区域发展中资本的贡献率均最高;随着经济环境及政策等的改变,不同阶段各区域发展中要素贡献率有所变化;整个时期各区域经济增长方式均属高度粗放型。各区域需要充分发挥比较优势,继续维持资本拉动型的增长模式,并不断加大教育及科技投入,逐步由粗放型向集约型转变,实现均衡可持续发展。

Under the framework of classical growth theory,this paper divided the years of 1952 to 2011 into three stages by re forming and western development,calculated factor contribution to economic growth in the eastern,central and western re gions,and estimated their economic growth modes by using the panel data model.The results showed as follows： in the whole period,capital contribution was the highest in all regions;along with changes of economic environment and policies,factor contribution was also changing;all regions were extensive economic growth modes in different periods.The regions should take full of their comparative advantages,maintain the capital driven growth and continue to increase investment in education,sci ence and technology,transform extensive into intensive gradually to achieve sustainable and balanced development.