通货膨胀预期视角下货币政策的非对称效应研究

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Inflation Expectation

本文在粘性信息理论框架下运用马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型分析货币政策调控的非对称效应,并给予了实证检验。研究结果表明:当通胀预期低而稳定时,数量型宽松货币政策更有利于推动实体经济增长;当通胀预期水平较高或波动性较强时,扩张性货币供给的产出效应不明显,且提高利率对长期通货膨胀的调控效果亦不佳。与此同时,通货膨胀在货币政策冲击下呈现出明显的持续性波动特征。央行应关注通胀预期对货币政策调控效应的影响,提高货币政策信号的透明度和可信度,并加强对经济主体预期的合理引导。

Using the MS-VAR model,this paper analyzes the asymmetric effects of monetary policy under the sticky-information theory framework and conducts empirical test. The results show that quantitative loose monetary policy is beneficial to push economic growth in the period of low and stable inflation expectation. The output effect of expansive money supply is not significant and increasing interest rate is not conducive to regulating long term inflation when the inflation expectation remains high and volatile. Meanwhile, the inflation shows an obvious trend of consistent volatility under the shock of monetary policy. As a result, central bank should be more concerned about the critical effects of inflation expectation on monetary policy regulation, promote the signals,and offer rational guidance to economic subjects transparency and credibility of monetary policy expectation.